Wildfire hazard modelling in the Ahafo Region of Ghana using GIS–based Multi- criteria decision-making analysis

Forest fire is a devastating phenomenon that causes huge losses of lives, properties, and ecologies, especially in peri‑urban settlements. This study investigates forest fires to identify, classify, and map hazard areas and aid decision-making during interventions and management in the Ahafo Region of Ghana. The assessment considered five risk sub-models i.e. ignition, detection, response, fuel, and climate factor models in an integrated GIS-MCDA model and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Twelve factor criteria were selected for the wildfire modelling considering their relative importance to wildfire as well as other related characteristics. The final wildfire hazard map was subsequently created by utilizing ArcMap 10.8 weighted sum technique to construct and integrate each of the five sub-models. Results from the analysis revealed that, approximately an area of 2257.36 km2 was found to be under high to very high fuel risk, representing 43.5% whereas the high ignition risk areas within the forest cover a total area of 4480.4 km2 representing 86.3% of the study area. A large extent of the area covers moderate to very low response zones and constitutes a total area of 4762.7 km2 being 91.7% of the study area. The detection risk model suggests that visible areas constitute a total area of 4257.4km2 (82%), while obscured areas occupy the remaining 935.7km2 (18%). The resultant final wildfire hazard map indicates that the northeastern portion of the study area has a high fire hazard potential and covers an area of approximately 2856.2 km2 representing 55% of the total area. The results from the study imply that the forest ecology of the Ahafo region is under high threats of wildfire. The study recommends that the National Disaster Management Organization and Ghana National Fire Service should employ wildfire hazard maps to aid fire management and decision-making on interventions for optimal fire control.