Does transfer of development rights (TDR) enhance or suppress ecosystem services? Evidence from Southern China

To clarify the comprehensive impact of Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) on ecosystem services (ES), this study constructs TDR scenario simulations using Guangxi, China as the study area. First, we identified two types of TDR transfer mechanisms—urban-rural and regional—based on Chinese policies that implicitly reflect the TDR concept. Second, TDR sending and receiving areas were delineated according to urban-rural relationships and objective indicators such as the ratio of developed area to total area in each city. Third, a top-down allocation method was employed to determine the quantity of Land Development Rights (LDR) transferred. Finally, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use under the TDR scenario. For comparison, four scenarios were constructed: the Baseline Scenario (BS), Development Scenario (DS), Protection Scenario (PS), and TDR Scenario (TDR). On this basis, the InVEST model was used to estimate three ES functions—Soil Conservation (SC), Habitat Quality (HQ), and Carbon Storage (C)—while a spatial analytical geometry model was applied to measure ES coordination deviation (CDD) and the degree of comprehensive transformation (CTD). The results show that: (1) TDR flexibly reallocates construction land through spatial transfer, meeting development needs while protecting agricultural and ecological spaces, thereby effectively reducing losses in SC, HQ, and C. (2) Taking 2020 as the baseline, compared with other scenarios, TDR improves ES coordination by 0.09%, with CTD decreasing by only 0.10%. Compared with the BS, TDR increases CTD by 0.255% while reducing coordination by only 0.197%, indicating the best overall ES performance. This study demonstrates the positive effects of TDR on ES protection and provides new insights for coordinating land development and ecological conservation in regional spatial planning.