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Optimal urban expansion rates for balancing ecosystem services and economic development in mega-city fringe areas: A modeling framework applied to Huadu district, Guangzhou

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Xiaohuan
  • Lin, Qiting
  • Li, Shengyuan
  • Liu, Xin
  • Gou, Zhonghua

Abstract

Urban expansion in mega-city fringe areas often exacerbates trade-offs between economic development and ecosystem services (ES) degradation. This study introduces a novel integrated modeling framework—System Dynamics (SD)-PLUS-InVEST-Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD)—to simulate and optimize urban expansion rates for balanced economy-ecology outcomes. We develop the Urban Expansion–Ecosystem–Economic Index (UEEEI) as a quantitative metric to evaluate these interactions. Applied to Huadu District, Guangzhou, the framework simulates UEEEI under seven expansion scenarios for 2035: shrinkage (SHRINK), halt (STOP), strong deceleration (SLOW-2), mild deceleration (SLOW-1), baseline (BASED), mild acceleration (FAST-1), and strong acceleration (FAST-2). Model validation shows high accuracy (e.g., PLUS Kappa = 0.82; SD errors <3%). Results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between UEEEI and expansion rate (R² = 0.929), with SLOW-2 (0–1.414 km²/yr) yielding optimal coordination (UEEEI = 0.844). The framework provides a transferable tool for multi-scenario simulations in urbanizing regions, advancing ecological modeling by coupling land-use dynamics, ES valuation, and socio-economic feedbacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Xiaohuan & Lin, Qiting & Li, Shengyuan & Liu, Xin & Gou, Zhonghua, 2026. "Optimal urban expansion rates for balancing ecosystem services and economic development in mega-city fringe areas: A modeling framework applied to Huadu district, Guangzhou," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 513(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:513:y:2026:i:c:s0304380025004223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111436
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