A decision support system linking forest succession, habitat suitability and population dynamics of woodland caribou in the boreal forest of northern Ontario, Canada

Different types of analytical tools have been developed to study woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). They include models or applications to characterize habitats, predict population dynamics, develop management or conservation policies or examine the effects of disturbances. However, most of the studies that have been conducted are based on the development of single models or applications that are not necessarily well integrated. In this study, the development of an integrated decision support system for woodland caribou is presented. It is based on the forest succession model ZELIG-CFS, a habitat suitability model to compute habitat suitability indices and a population dynamics model based on the Verhulst-Pearl equation. The forest succession model includes model components to simulate the effect of increase in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 on forest succession. Data for forest ecosystems within the Brightsand caribou range in northern Ontario, Canada, were obtained from an enhanced Forest Resources Inventory dataset developed and maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry and included 39,222 polygons within the area of the range studied. Simulations of the effects of climate change on forest composition indicated that shade tolerant conifer species, which are preferred habitats of caribou, will decrease in importance, while shade intolerant hardwood species will increase in importance. Simulations indicated that these changes will gradually occur, affecting habitat suitability, but will not be sufficiently important to have major effects on caribou in the Brightsand range over a 50-year time horizon. The higher rate of mortality than recruitment contributed more to the decrease in the caribou population. Decision support systems like the one described in this study are needed to facilitate the comprehensive integration of various analytical applications that create the appropriate conditions to preserve caribou for the planning of forest management activities.