A model for the dynamics of roosting in buildings by a Neotropical aerial-insectivorous bat

Some insectivorous bats tolerate urban environments, using buildings as roosts and artificial illumination as foraging patches. These bats have the potential to assist in the control of agricultural pests and disease vectors, but the tools to effectively manage them in urban environments are limited. We constructed a mathematical model to analyze the use of buildings as diurnal roosting sites by Neotropical, aerial-insectivorous bats in an ex-urban environment. For over two years, we did biweekly counts of the number of older (subadult and adult) bats and sucklings of Saccopteryx leptura (family Emballoniridae) in four buildings on a university campus in Colombia. The model fits the observed results for older bats and captures the periodic variation in the number of sucklings over the study period. The model predicts that reducing habitat quality, which we associate with human perturbations, decreases the number of older bats, but not the number of sucklings, unless for substantial perturbations. Increasing precipitation to levels similar to those of La Niña years ameliorates the effects related to habitat deterioration for older bats, but has a minor impact on sucklings. Reducing precipitation to levels close to those of El Niño years can accentuate the effects of habitat deterioration. In conclusion, the model explains the use of the roosting sites through the interaction of mechanisms related to precipitation seasonality, density-dependent effects affecting the gain and loss of individuals, and changes in habitat quality. Thus, the model can evaluate climate and habitat change scenarios relevant to managing and conserving urban bats.