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Prescribed fire management impacts on forest succession trajectories in future southern Appalachian forests

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  • Jones, Kate
  • Vukomanovic, Jelena
  • Robbins, Zachary J.
  • Scheller, Robert M.

Abstract

Prescribed fire use has increased throughout the Southeastern U.S. and Southern Appalachian Mountains as an effective tool for landscape-scale fuels reduction and ecosystem restoration, yet may become more difficult in extreme weather conditions. The objective of this study is to assess long-term (100 year) forest response to divergent scenarios of climate and prescribed burning initiatives. We modeled 48, 6.25 ha sites distributed throughout western North Carolina that were selected by combining historical geospatial prescribed fire data and input from regional fire managers. For eight functional groups of tree species, we simulated 21 scenarios combining seven different prescribed fire intervals and three climate scenarios. We found that climate, burn interval, and initial forest community composition affect total biomass and functional group composition, with the least biomass occurring under hotter drier conditions and the greatest number of fires. Changes in functional group composition were most influenced by the initial forest community, then number of fires, then climate. Forest demographics were also sensitive to prescribed fire; young cohorts (<30 years) increased only when sites were burned every 10 years or more frequently, while intermediate age cohorts (30–60 years) increased only when burned every 5 years, regardless of climate and initial forest community. Our simulations and scenario design help to discern the effect of varying climatic and weather conditions, fire management, and existing forest composition on future forests. This work can be used to support fire and natural resource management planning by exploring a range of uncertainty associated with different fire and climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Kate & Vukomanovic, Jelena & Robbins, Zachary J. & Scheller, Robert M., 2025. "Prescribed fire management impacts on forest succession trajectories in future southern Appalachian forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 510(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:510:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025003096
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111323
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karin L. Riley & Matthew P. Thompson & Joe H. Scott & Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, 2018. "A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Scheller, Robert M. & Domingo, James B. & Sturtevant, Brian R. & Williams, Jeremy S. & Rudy, Arnold & Gustafson, Eric J. & Mladenoff, David J., 2007. "Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 409-419.
    3. Scheller, Robert & Kretchun, Alec & Hawbaker, Todd J. & Henne, Paul D., 2019. "A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 85-93.
    4. Scheller, Robert M. & Hua, Dong & Bolstad, Paul V. & Birdsey, Richard A. & Mladenoff, David J., 2011. "The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 144-153.
    5. Inglis, Nicole C. & Vukomanovic, Jelena, 2020. "Climate change disproportionately affects visual quality of cultural ecosystem services in a mountain region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
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