Scenario-driven modeling of mountain ecosystems: land use-carbon dynamics simulation based on the coupled SD-FLUS-InVEST framework

Understanding land use and carbon dynamics was crucial for optimizing resource management and promoting carbon neutrality. With a focus on the sustainable development of mountain systems, this study presented a coupling framework of SD-FLUS-InVEST and used the Yanshan-Taihang mountainous area as a case study to explore land use transitions and the mechanisms by which the carbon cycle responded. This model coupled the entire policy-space-ecology chain, improved computational efficiency compared to traditional models, achieved high-precision spatial allocation (Kappa > 0.83), and supported multi-scenario simulations. Empirical studies showed that the region's carbon imbalance had continued to worsen from 2000 to 2035. Spatial differentiation expanded; high-value carbon sink areas clustered in the mountains, and carbon hotspots expanded along the North China Plain. The potential for carbon neutrality declined. Thus, core forest land had to be strictly protected, and periurban carbon-sinking agriculture had to be developed to increase the region's potential for carbon neutrality. The modeling framework could be generalized for the sustainable management of fragile ecosystems worldwide.