Multi-scenario spatial optimization for future development in arid and semi-arid regions based on early warning of ecological risk

Human activities have significantly transformed land use, resulting in increasing ecological risks, especially in ecologically fragile arid and semi-arid regions. We developed a new early warning of ecological risk framework and predicted ecological risk under different scenarios, aimed at ensuring ecological security and enhancing ecosystem service delivery in regions such as China’s West Liao River Basin. From 2000 to 2020, the areas of forest and grassland space increased, which improved the overall environmental quality of the basin and decreased the ecological risk. However, from 2030 to 2050 under the current development trend scenario, the expansion of living space will increase the ecological risk. The ecological priority scenario offers enhanced environmental protection, suggesting that regions with high population density and fragile ecosystems where maximizing ecological benefits is critical. The economic development scenario, while more appropriate for regions that are ecologically stable and economically prosperous, can stimulate local economic growth. Both the ecological priority and economic development scenarios demonstrate superior control over ecological risk compared to the current development trend. The selection of appropriate strategies should be tailored to the unique characteristics of each region. Our results provide a new perspective for optimizing space and scientifically managing ecological risks.