Research on the uncertainty analysis of the carbon peak and pivotal influencing factors for provincial agriculture in China

A scientific assessment of provincial agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) trends is an essential component for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals. This study aims to investigate the coordinated relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth, thereby laying a foundation for China's green socio-economic transformation. First, by employing spatial autocorrelation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, we identify the spatial patterns of ACE and classify the development stages of the provinces. Second, by integrating the Tapio decoupling model with Markov chains, we reveal the dynamic evolutionary paths and stability of the agricultural "carbon economy" decoupling status. Finally, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition is utilized to quantitatively identify the key driving factors affecting the decoupling process. The results show that China's provincial ACE exhibit significant and persistent spatial agglomeration characteristics. The provinces can be classified into six distinct development stages, with Group AP IV having entered a potential carbon peaking period, whereas some major agricultural production areas still face formidable emission reduction challenges. Provinces widely face a high-probability risk of reverting from a state of strong decoupling to an unfavorable one. Even for provinces with peaking potential, the probability of maintaining strong decoupling is merely 67.6 %, while for major agricultural production areas, the probability of status deterioration is as high as 71.7 %, suggesting that China's agricultural low-carbon transition predominantly follows an extensive dynamic path. Energy Utilization Efficiency (EUE) is the most critical driving force in promoting agricultural carbon decoupling, and across all regional groups, the enhancement of EUE plays a dominant role in emission reduction. This study extends the theoretical understanding of the dynamics of agricultural 'carbon-economy' decoupling, provides a scientific basis for the formulation of regionally differentiated agricultural low-carbon policies.