The response of avian species’ niche envelope to extreme events using MaxEnt modeling: A case study at Maoli Lake, Hunan, China

Climate change, particularly extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, not only has a significant impact on the environment and ecosystems, but also directly affects the distribution of species and their habitats. The response to extreme climate events has become a key issue in current climate change research. This study, conducted between 2022 and 2023, gathered distribution data of bird species in the Maoli Lake Nature Reserve in Hunan through field surveys along waterways. The study combined environmental data and distribution data in the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to examine the effects of extreme climate change on bird species' occupied habitats in the region. The study found that changes in environmental conditions lead to significant changes (p < 0.01) in the distribution of habitat suitability values when moisture, wetness, and vegetation are changed. The total absolute change of area from average models was 21,316 ha when projected into minimum environmental conditions and 12,362 ha when projected into maximum environmental conditions. Species with a narrow niche breadth seemed to be more severely affected by changes in environmental conditions. Shoreline supported the most preferred habitat features for many species. The results can provide a basis and reference for bird conservation, climate change adaptation, and effective management in the landscape.