Accounting for consumption-based cultivated land use in China: A structural driver-pathway framework

As economic and social development accelerates, the demand for cultivated land has surged. However, limited research has quantified consumption-side cultivated land use (CLU), hindering informed policymaking. This study uniquely examines the key drivers and sectoral pathways of consumption-based CLU in China from 2002 to 2020, an aspect that has been overlooked in previous studies, with the help of an integrated model of ecological input-output analysis, structural decomposition analysis (SDA), and structural path analysis (SPA). Results reveal that Agriculture’s CLU share declined from 52.95% to 38.22% during 2002–2020, while Manufacturing rose from 24.99% to 38.49%, becoming the dominant sector amid rapid industrialization. Urban consumption emerged as the primary final demand driver, rising from 39.49% in 2002 to 46.17% in 2020. The SDA model reveals that the increases in CLU from 2002 to 2020 were driven by a rise in both per-capita demand and population, while reductions in land-use intensity had a mitigating effect. The SPA model reveals a significant reduction in direct CLU within the 0th production layer (the production process of final commodities and services), decreasing from 43.36% in 2002 to 31.64% in 2020. This trend indicates a notable shift towards indirect land use facilitated by more complex supply chains. The findings provide insights into sustainable cultivated land management and planning, offering policy recommendations to balance land conservation with economic and social development.