Modeling rodent population and pathogen dynamics in agricultural environments: Assessing the impact of control strategies on disease transmission

Rodents pose a major challenge to livestock farms by causing structural damage and serving as reservoirs and carriers of pathogens that threaten both animal and human health. With increasing restrictions on rodenticide use, there is a critical need to understand how alternative rodent management strategies influence the dynamics of rodent-borne diseases. In this study, we develop a novel model that integrates rodent population dynamics within agricultural environments (e.g., pig and poultry farms) with pathogen transmission characterized by different life histories (e.g., long-lasting vs. short-lived immunity, direct vs. indirect transmission). Our model is informed by experimental data to realistically capture rodent and pathogen dynamics and to evaluate the relative effectiveness of different management interventions. Specifically, we assess the impacts of sanitation, culling, and fertility control strategies on both rodent populations and pathogen prevalence. Our framework integrates diverse pathogen life histories and explicitly links management interventions to their effects on both disease dynamics and rodent populations within a specific agricultural context. Our results show no substantial differences between direct and environmentally transmitted pathogens. However, farm sanitation was the most effective strategy when the pathogen elicited long-lasting immunity, while culling was effective when immunity was short-lived. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of considering both pathogen life history and host population dynamics when designing sustainable and effective rodent management strategies.