IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v506y2025ics0304380025001425.html

Elasmobranch vulnerability to global warming: insights from bioenergetic modelling of catsharks under climate scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Coulon, Noémie
  • Elliott, Sophie
  • Barreau, Thomas
  • Lucas, Julie
  • Gousset, Emma
  • Feunteun, Eric
  • Carpentier, Alexandre

Abstract

Ectotherms are especially vulnerable to global warming due to their temperature-sensitive metabolic processes, impacting survival and reproductive success. Elasmobranchs, with slow life histories and low reproductive rates, may face amplified risks. In this study, we investigated two catshark species with distinct life traits and distributions: the Small-spotted Catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) and the Nursehound (S. stellaris). Using newly calibrated bioenergetic models, we assessed changes in growth, sexual maturity, offspring production, and population dynamics under two CMIP6 climate scenarios projected for 2100: SSP2–4.5 (Middle of the Road) and SSP5–8.5 (Fossil-fueled Development), comparing these to historical data (1994–2015). Survival rates for early life stages remained similar under historical temperatures (80 %) and SSP2 (83 %) but dropped sharply under SSP5 to 33 % for S. canicula and 23 % for S. stellaris. Under both SSP2 and SSP5, S. canicula showed slight delays in maturation, yet the proportion of mature individuals ultimately exceeded historical levels in SSP2. Conversely, S. stellaris experienced progressively delayed maturation with warming. In SSP5, reduced growth, reproduction, and survival caused a population crash for S. stellaris, suggesting potential extinction. Our results reveal contrasting climate impacts on these species, underscoring the risk for late-maturing, low-fecundity, and narrowly distributed species. This emphasizes the urgency of conservation strategies tailored to mitigate their vulnerability to global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Coulon, Noémie & Elliott, Sophie & Barreau, Thomas & Lucas, Julie & Gousset, Emma & Feunteun, Eric & Carpentier, Alexandre, 2025. "Elasmobranch vulnerability to global warming: insights from bioenergetic modelling of catsharks under climate scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 506(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:506:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025001425
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380025001425
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111157?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boult, Victoria L. & Quaife, Tristan & Fishlock, Vicki & Moss, Cynthia J. & Lee, Phyllis C. & Sibly, Richard M., 2018. "Individual-based modelling of elephant population dynamics using remote sensing to estimate food availability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 187-195.
    2. Politikos, Dimitrios V. & Huret, Martin & Petitgas, Pierre, 2015. "A coupled movement and bioenergetics model to explore the spawning migration of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 212-222.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Watson, Joseph W & Boyd, Robin & Dutta, Ritabrata & Vasdekis, Georgios & Walker, Nicola D. & Roy, Shovonlal & Everitt, Richard & Hyder, Kieran & Sibly, Richard M, 2022. "Incorporating environmental variability in a spatially-explicit individual-based model of European sea bass✰," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 466(C).
    2. Boyd, Robin & Roy, Shovonlal & Sibly, Richard & Thorpe, Robert & Hyder, Kieran, 2018. "A general approach to incorporating spatial and temporal variation in individual-based models of fish populations with application to Atlantic mackerel," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 382(C), pages 9-17.
    3. He, Haosen & Buchholtz, Erin & Chen, Frederick & Vogel, Susanne & Yu, Chu A.(Alex), 2022. "An agent-based model of elephant crop consumption walks using combinatorial optimization," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    4. Chudzinska, Magda & Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob & Smout, Sophie & Aarts, Geert & Brasseur, Sophie & Graham, Isla & Thompson, Paul & McConnell, Bernie, 2021. "AgentSeal: Agent-based model describing movement of marine central-place foragers," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    5. Clark, Matt & Andrews, Jeffrey & Kolarik, Nicholas & Omar, Mbarouk Mussa & Hillis, Vicken, 2024. "Causal attribution of agricultural expansion in a small island system using approximate Bayesian computation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Neil, Emily & Madsen, Jens Koed & Carrella, Ernesto & Payette, Nicolas & Bailey, Richard, 2020. "Agent-based modelling as a tool for elephant poaching mitigation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 427(C).
    7. Morrice, Katherine J. & Baptista, António M. & Burke, Brian J., 2020. "Environmental and behavioral controls on juvenile Chinook salmon migration pathways in the Columbia River estuary," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 427(C).
    8. Desforges, Jean-Pierre & Marques, Gonçalo M. & Beumer, Larissa T. & Chimienti, Marianna & Blake, John & Rowell, Janice E. & Adamczewski, Jan & Schmidt, Niels Martin & van Beest, Floris M., 2019. "Quantification of the full lifecycle bioenergetics of a large mammal in the high Arctic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 27-39.
    9. Chudzinska, Magda & Dupont, Yoko L. & Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob & Maia, Kate P. & Henriksen, Marie V. & Rasmussen, Claus & Kissling, W. Daniel & Hagen, Melanie & Trøjelsgaard, Kristian, 2020. "Combining the strengths of agent-based modelling and network statistics to understand animal movement and interactions with resources: example from within-patch foraging decisions of bumblebees," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    10. Chimienti, Marianna & Desforges, Jean-Pierre & Beumer, Larissa T. & Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob & van Beest, Floris M. & Schmidt, Niels Martin, 2020. "Energetics as common currency for integrating high resolution activity patterns into dynamic energy budget-individual based models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 434(C).
    11. Purathekandy, Anjali & Oommen, Meera Anna & Wikelski, Martin & Subramani, Deepak N., 2024. "An agent-based model of elephant crop raid dynamics in the Periyar–Agasthyamalai complex, India," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 496(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:506:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025001425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.