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SEIR-Metapopulation model of potential spread of West Nile virus

Author

Listed:
  • Bhowmick, Suman
  • Gethmann, Jörn
  • Conraths, Franz J.
  • Sokolov, Igor M.
  • Lentz, Hartmut H.K.

Abstract

In 2018, West Nile Virus (WNV) was detected for the first time in Germany. Since the first detection, 36 human cases and 175 cases in horses and birds are detected. The transmission cycle of West Nile Virus includes birds and mosquitoes and as dead-end hosts — humans and horses. Spatial dissemination of the disease is caused by the movements of birds and mosquitoes. It should be noted that the vector activity and the spread of WNV are not entirely intertwined but there is a greater scale of overlap between it. The dissemination process is rather complicated and it can not only be attributed to different weather driven factors like temperature but also other biological factors i.e. vector competency, habitat suitability etc. In our current study, we have restricted our modelling effort only to temperature dependent to simplify the modelling assumptions. While the activity and movement of mosquitoes are depending mainly on temperature, in the birds there is a complex movement pattern caused by local birds and long-range dispersal birds. To this end, we have developed a metapopulation-network model to delineate the potential spatial distribution and spread of WNV across Germany. Our model combines vector, local birds, and long-range dispersal birds contact networks. We have assumed different distance dispersal kernels models for the vector and avian populations with the intention to include short and long-range dispersal. The model includes spatial variation of mosquito abundance and the movements to resemble the reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhowmick, Suman & Gethmann, Jörn & Conraths, Franz J. & Sokolov, Igor M. & Lentz, Hartmut H.K., 2023. "SEIR-Metapopulation model of potential spread of West Nile virus," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:476:y:2023:i:c:s0304380022003118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laperrière, Vincent & Brugger, Katharina & Rubel, Franz, 2016. "Cross-scale modeling of a vector-borne disease, from the individual to the metapopulation: The seasonal dynamics of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 34-48.
    2. Sifat A Moon & Lee W Cohnstaedt & D Scott McVey & Caterina M Scoglio, 2019. "A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: Spreading pattern of West Nile virus," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Natalia Stefanini Da Silveira & Bernardo Brandão S Niebuhr & Renata de Lara Muylaert & Milton Cezar Ribeiro & Marco Aurélio Pizo, 2016. "Effects of Land Cover on the Movement of Frugivorous Birds in a Heterogeneous Landscape," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
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