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Multi-model approach and evaluation of the uncertainty of model results. Rationale and applications to predict the behaviour of contaminants in the abiotic components of the fresh water environment

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  • Monte, Luigi

Abstract

This work aims at discussing some concepts pertaining to the theory and practice of environmental modelling in view of the results of several model validation exercises performed by the group “Model validation for radionuclide transport in the system watershed-river and in estuaries” of project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) supported by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The analyses here performed concern models applied to real scenarios of environmental contamination. In particular, the reasons for the uncertainty of the models and the EBUA (empirically based uncertainty analysis) methodology are discussed. The foundations of multi-model approach in environmental modelling are presented and motivated. An application of EBUA to the results of a multi-model exercise concerning three models aimed at predicting the wash-off of radionuclide deposits from the Pripyat floodplain (Ukraine) was described. Multi-model approach is, definitely, a tool for uncertainty analysis. EBUA offers the opportunity of an evaluation of the uncertainty levels of predictions in multi-model applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Monte, Luigi, 2009. "Multi-model approach and evaluation of the uncertainty of model results. Rationale and applications to predict the behaviour of contaminants in the abiotic components of the fresh water environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(12), pages 1469-1480.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:12:p:1469-1480
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.03.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ogle, Stephen M. & Breidt, F. Jay & Easter, Mark & Williams, Steve & Paustian, Keith, 2007. "An empirically based approach for estimating uncertainty associated with modelling carbon sequestration in soils," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 453-463.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcot, Bruce G., 2012. "Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 50-62.
    2. Monte, Luigi, 2009. "A methodological approach to develop “contaminant migration–population effects” models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3280-3290.

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