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Safe havens or war hedges? Asset behavior during the 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict

Author

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  • Paltrinieri, Andrea
  • Perdichizzi, Salvatore
  • Piserà, Stefano

Abstract

We examine whether the late-February 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict revived the safe-haven role of traditional and alternative assets. Using daily Refinitiv data, an event-study design, and interaction regressions with global equity returns, we analyze gold, Bitcoin, oil, and European natural gas (TTF) around the conflict escalation. Gold provides, at best, weak safe-haven properties, with no significant abnormal returns and higher volatility during the event window. Bitcoin offers no robust protection. Oil displays the clearest short-run hedge, but because its payoff is directly exposed to war-related supply risk. The evidence points to war hedges rather than a broad re-emergence of genuinely safe assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Paltrinieri, Andrea & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Piserà, Stefano, 2026. "Safe havens or war hedges? Asset behavior during the 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:265:y:2026:i:c:s0165176526002041
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113010
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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