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Monetary tightening and the art-market speculative premium: evidence from a contemporary–19th century spread

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  • Chen, Ziwen

Abstract

This note examines how U.S. monetary policy surprises reshape relative pricing across art-market segments. Using Artprice hedonic indices, I define a speculative premium as the return differential between Contemporary and 19th Century art. Local projections show that contractionary surprises compress this premium over the subsequent quarters (h = 0 denotes the next quarter). The effect is robust to equity-market adjustment. Point estimates are larger for tightening than easing surprises, but asymmetry tests are imprecise at some horizons. I discuss economic magnitude, timing in an illiquid auction market, and data limitations stemming from the absence of unsold lots.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Ziwen, 2026. "Monetary tightening and the art-market speculative premium: evidence from a contemporary–19th century spread," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:262:y:2026:i:c:s0165176526000868
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112892
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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