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A tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis

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  • Pei, Youquan
  • Peng, Heng
  • Zhang, Chi

Abstract

We propose a flexible and interpretable tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis, allowing both direct and indirect effects to vary across latent subgroups. Subgroup membership probabilities are modeled as functions of covariates using decision trees. An EM algorithm is developed to estimate subgroup-specific mediation effects and mixing proportions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the method accurately captures complex heterogeneity. Applied to the JOBS II experiment, our model uncovers distinct mediation pathways shaped by baseline depression and economic hardship, which are obscured under conventional homogeneous models.

Suggested Citation

  • Pei, Youquan & Peng, Heng & Zhang, Chi, 2026. "A tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:261:y:2026:i:c:s0165176526000327
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838
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