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Unemployment dynamics in the United Kingdom: a quarter-millennium perspective

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  • Yucel, Ali Gokhan
  • Nazlioglu, Saban

Abstract

This letter examines the persistence of unemployment in the United Kingdom (UK) using over a quarter of a millennium of data, spanning from 1760 to 2023. The results from the quantile unit root approach—accounting for non-normal distributions, structural changes, and non-linearity—reveal asymmetric unemployment dynamics. Shocks to unemployment appear transitory in low-unemployment regimes but are persistent in high-unemployment regimes. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for asymmetries in labor market adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yucel, Ali Gokhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2025. "Unemployment dynamics in the United Kingdom: a quarter-millennium perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525003052
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112468
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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