IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v115y2012i3p431-434.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data

Author

Listed:
  • Phillips, Keith R.
  • Nordlund, James

Abstract

We find evidence of a cyclical and seasonal bias in the annual benchmark revisions to the monthly level of non-farm payroll employment. We propose a change to the methodology that would remove the seasonal bias and ensure that the benchmark process does not artificially influence the estimated seasonal pattern in the raw data.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Keith R. & Nordlund, James, 2012. "The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 431-434.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:431-434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511006410
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.118?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L, 1991. "Can We Improve upon Preliminary Estimates of Payroll Employment Growth?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 197-205, April.
    2. Nicholas Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 90(Q 2), pages 1-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    2. Phillips, Keith R. & Teng, Judy S., 2020. "Months for benchmark dominance: A new accuracy measure for state employment data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023. "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023. "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.
    2. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz & Tyler Radler, 2018. "Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
    5. Timothy Q. Cook & Steve Korn, 1991. "The reaction of interest rates to the employment report: the role of policy anticipations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Sep), pages 3-12.
    6. Markku Lanne, 2009. "Properties of Market-Based and Survey Macroeconomic Forecasts for Different Data Releases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2231-2240.
    7. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 53-62.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data revisions; Seasonal bias; Payroll employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:431-434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.