The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data
We find evidence of a cyclical and seasonal bias in the annual benchmark revisions to the monthly level of non-farm payroll employment. We propose a change to the methodology that would remove the seasonal bias and ensure that the benchmark process does not artificially influence the estimated seasonal pattern in the raw data.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Neumark, David & Wascher, William L, 1991. "Can We Improve upon Preliminary Estimates of Payroll Employment Growth?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 197-205, April.
- Nicholas Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 1-23.
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