Anticipating rebound effects in the steel industry: Pathways, mechanisms, and mitigation for effective decarbonisation

The steel industry, as the largest industrial carbon-emitter, is actively pursuing decarbonisation through strategies such as process efficiency improvements and circular economy initiatives. However, past efficiency gains have been offset by the rapid growth in production and led to higher net emissions. This phenomenon indicates the occurrence of rebound effects. Despite their significance, the pathways through which rebound effects manifest in the steel industry remain underexplored. This paper employs a horizon scanning methodology, combined with established classification frameworks, to investigate these pathways. Using open and axial coding techniques, the study identifies seven key issues driving rebound effects and maps them onto a classification framework adapted to the steel sector. An analysis of the interdependencies among these issues reveals their collective potential to exacerbate environmentally harmful rebound effects. The study formalises these issues into propositions that can inform climate mitigation scenarios and offers strategies to mitigate the impact of rebound effects on the steel industry's decarbonisation efforts. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to anticipate rebound effects in circular economy strategies and consider coordinated planning measures for controlling global steel demand to maximise the benefits of decarbonisation.