Municipal solid waste generation in Norway: A panel analysis investigating the waste Kuznets curve

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation is a considerable issue in terms of environmental pollution and is inextricably linked to household consumption. To identify potential decoupling of economic activity and waste, studies have tested the Waste Kuznets Curve (WKC) hypothesis, investigating factors that increase or decrease the MSW per capita generation across and within countries. We analyze a panel data set of 344 municipalities in Norway between 2006 and 2023, identifying variables that influence MSW generation both at the general and the individual municipality level. Three panel regression models are estimated, these being Fixed Effect, pooled Ordinary Least Squares, and system Generalized Method of Moments. We find evidence of relative decoupling between income and MSW/capita, however, at income levels and a timeframe that arguably makes actual decoupling unlikely under current modes of consumption. We find that vacation home practice is a significant driver of higher MSW generation, and that periods of interest rate hikes reduce MSW generation, showing the importance of addressing specific socio-cultural contexts. We also observed no significant effect of national policy implementation instruments included in our study design over the investigated period. Although our model approach and selection are robust, accounting for endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity of the panel data, systematic non-reporting of MSW occurring outside municipal households at the regional level provides a challenge, obscuring the possible qualitative difference between urban and rural environments. This is a significant issue for much of the WKC literature and represents a clear research gap for future studies.