Testing the ecological hysteresis hypothesis in the world's top polluting countries: A regime-switching time series analysis (1961–2022)

This study examines the validity and temporal evolution of the Ecological Hysteresis Hypothesis (EHH) for the world's ten most polluted countries from 1961 to 2022. Inspired by labor-market and carbon hysteresis, EHH posits that environmental indicators may not revert to historical means after shocks, implying path dependence. Using per-capita ecological footprint as the core indicator, we find strong evidence of hysteresis in eight of ten countries, with regime-dependent differences and both positive and negative forms over time. Robustness checks using the EF/BC ratio alongside PEF confirm non-stationarity in eight countries, showing that ecological pressure persistently exceeds biocapacity and that hysteresis operates not only in per-capita demand but also relative to ecosystem carrying capacity. These patterns indicate the persistence of environmental degradation, suggesting that short-lived, one-off interventions are unlikely to deliver lasting transformations. Policy should therefore be long-term, adaptive, and sensitive to country-specific regimes, prioritizing reforms that reduce fossil-fuel dependence and strengthen governance quality. While we apply a suite of unit-root and structural-break tests, the study contribution lies less in methods than in articulating and empirically evaluating EHH and in offering a policy design framework grounded in hysteresis dynamics.