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Leveraging international trade for the ecological transition: Quantifying the drivers of planetary boundaries

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  • Carneiro, Gabriel Santos
  • Magacho, Guilherme Riccioppo
  • Espagne, Etienne

Abstract

Seven of the nine Planetary Boundaries have been breached by now. As a large share of human economic activities is enabled by international trade, this paper aims to analyze the footprints of global trade over the planetary boundaries. Using a multi-regional input-output database, we calculate ecological footprints embodied in trade relations related to the different planetary boundaries for different countries and economic activities through a modified method of consumption-based accounting. Results suggest that the pressure on planetary boundaries attributable to global trade ranges from 19 % to 50 %, depending on the boundary. The heterogeneity in pressure levels reflects the diverse economic structures of countries and regions, highlighting the influence of geographic and productive factors on ecological footprints. In general, Europe, North America and East Asia tend to be major regions impacting boundaries due to their import structure. However, from an export perspective, the picture is more heterogenous, with almost every single region contributing to pressures in a different way. All in all, global trade policies appear to be an important potential leverage to mitigate pressures on planetary boundaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Carneiro, Gabriel Santos & Magacho, Guilherme Riccioppo & Espagne, Etienne, 2026. "Leveraging international trade for the ecological transition: Quantifying the drivers of planetary boundaries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:242:y:2026:i:c:s0921800925003908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108907
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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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