Do payments for environmental services impact forest cover? An evaluation of the reflorestar program

Although Payment for Environmental Services (PES) programs have expanded globally, rigorous impact evaluations remain limited in Brazil. Only a small number of studies have employed causal identification strategies, with most concentrated in the Amazon region. In the Atlantic Forest, empirical evidence is more recent and remains relatively scarce. This study contributes to that literature by evaluating the Reflorestar program in the state of Espírito Santo, a region characterized by fragmented land tenure, diversified agricultural systems, and significant Atlantic Forest coverage. The analysis combines property-level data from the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) with satellite imagery and applies Mahalanobis distance matching, difference-in-differences, and doubly robust estimation techniques to assess changes in vegetation cover and land use. The results show increases in native vegetation, particularly in early regeneration stages, as well as reductions in pasture and expansion of specific perennial crops. These findings offer additional evidence on how PES programs influence land-use decisions in complex rural environments and provide insights to inform more context-sensitive policy design and implementation.