The grey shades of green jobs: Unpacking the occupational approach to green employment

The green transition is expected to reshape labor markets, yet measuring its employment impact remains uncertain. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the occupational approach (derived from task-based measures) for estimating green employment, the most widespread framework among academics and institutions. First, we highlight the theoretical flaws of the occupational approach, noting that its reliance on occupational titles leads to false positives and excludes essential contributors to the green transition, resulting in false negatives. Second, we discuss the methodological problems of this approach, including inconsistent categorisations, outdated classifications, and the assumption that the content of occupations remains constant across time and countries. Third, we operationalise the occupational approach to measure green employment (using the O*NET framework), quantifying green employment in 24 European countries between 2011 and 2022. The analysis shows that, according to this approach, virtually no new green jobs were created in Europe in this period. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the presence of green jobs and several aggregate and sectoral environmental indicators. These findings reflect the theoretical and methodological flaws in the occupational approach, undermining its effectiveness in capturing the labour market impact of the green transition. Alternative measures of green employment focused on green economic outputs and processes should be considered.