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Predictive influence of Reddit sentiment on AI and tech moguls for digital financial assets: evidence from KAN and DES methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Ghosh, Indranil
  • Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban
  • Gámez, Matías
  • García-Rubio, Noelia

Abstract

The underlying research aims to uncover the predictive influence of Reddit sentiment on technological frontiers and leaders on the market outlook and volatility of cryptocurrency, nonfungible tokens, and metaverse assets. To accomplish the endeavors, the present study extracts relevant sentiment dimensions of user discussions on the Reddit platform on six keywords, ’Chat GPT’, ’Google Gemini’, ’Microsoft Copilot’, ’Elon Musk’, ’Mark Zuckerberg’, and ’Jeff Bezos’. The impact of the said indicators on the daily closing prices of Bitcoin, Decentraland, and Enjin and German-Klass volatility estimate of the same is mined through the methodological lens of predictive analytics. The Kolmogorov-Arnold Neural Network and Dynamic Ensemble Selection-based regression models are utilized to critically introspect the predictive dependence. Finally, Explainable Artificial Intelligence tools are invoked to interpret the prediction model to infer the relative influence of extracted sentiment features. Overall, the findings suggest that Reddit sentiment indicators, especially those linked to “Google Gemini” and “Elon Musk,” contain comparatively stronger predictive information for the selected digital financial assets during a period overlapping with major geopolitical conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghosh, Indranil & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García-Rubio, Noelia, 2026. "Predictive influence of Reddit sentiment on AI and tech moguls for digital financial assets: evidence from KAN and DES methodology," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:85:y:2026:i:c:s106294082600094x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2026.102672
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

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