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Rising temperatures and international trade dynamics: Evidence from China

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  • Li, Kai
  • Yu, Wenjun
  • Qi, Shaozhou
  • Yan, Yaxue
  • Gui, Zhipeng

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global warming and its growing implications for economic activity, this study examines the dynamic impact of rising temperatures on trade flows using urban-level climate and trade data for China from January 2004 to December 2019. Our key findings are as follows. First, both current and lagged temperature terms are significantly and negatively associated with export growth, with the magnitude of the current effect smaller than that of the lagged effect. According to the cumulative effect estimate, a 1 °C rise in temperature reduces export growth by 2.06% during the sample period. By contrast, the current, lagged, and cumulative effects of temperature shocks on import growth are statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Kai & Yu, Wenjun & Qi, Shaozhou & Yan, Yaxue & Gui, Zhipeng, 2026. "Rising temperatures and international trade dynamics: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:160:y:2026:i:c:s0264999326001021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107573
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