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Subnational impacts of Chinese education sector development aid on youth educational attainment in Africa

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  • Agbaji, Dickson David
  • Zhu, Qiong

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of Chinese education aid on African youth's secondary and tertiary education attainment. It harmonises 92 Demographic and Health Survey datasets from 27 African countries with AidData's geocoded data on 2580 Chinese projects across Africa between 2000 and 2021. The study draws on the education production function theory and adopts a difference-in-differences estimator that addresses endogeneity by testing for differences between active and pipeline projects. It finds that proximity to active Chinese education sector projects significantly improves African youth secondary and tertiary school enrolment and completion, with tertiary-level and non-infrastructure projects exhibiting the strongest effects. A causal mediation analysis demonstrates that the aid effect is mediated via household income, rather than infrastructure. Moreover, social and economic sector aid projects exhibit (in)direct spillover effects. Lastly, the paper finds that a selection bias exists, as wealthy and urban areas possess a comparative advantage vis-à-vis exposure to Chinese aid.

Suggested Citation

  • Agbaji, Dickson David & Zhu, Qiong, 2026. "Subnational impacts of Chinese education sector development aid on youth educational attainment in Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004390
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107444
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