IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v152y2025ics0264999325002603.html

Investor sentiment spillover from air pollution: Cross-industry influences on stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • He, Xubiao
  • Dong, Zhengwen
  • Teng, Min
  • Yang, Tingting

Abstract

This study employs the LASSO machine learning technique for robust causal inference. While air pollution is primarily linked to heavily polluting industries, we identify a pervasive sentiment spillover channel that transmits shocks to seemingly unrelated sectors. This occurs because pollution–induced negative sentiment alters investors’ risk appetite, prompting portfolio adjustments across various industries to express their green preferences. The spillover effects vary among industries due to differing sensitivities to pollution, and the energy sector is particularly impacted. We develop bilateral hedging strategies that incorporate the energy sector alongside other sectors, demonstrating that these strategies can effectively mitigate risks associated with pollution–induced sentiment. This risk mitigation is particularly effective when hedging the energy sector against industries more vulnerable to sentiment. These findings highlight the influence of sentiments related to specific sectors on the broader cross-section of stocks with implications for portfolio management and risk mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Xubiao & Dong, Zhengwen & Teng, Min & Yang, Tingting, 2025. "Investor sentiment spillover from air pollution: Cross-industry influences on stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325002603
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107265
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325002603
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107265?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jame, Russell & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Industry-based style investing," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 110-130.
    2. Fabio Pizzutilo & Valeria Roncone, 2017. "Red sky at night or in the morning, to the equity market neither a delight nor a warning: the weather effect re-examined using intraday stock data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1280-1310, November.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    4. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2022. "Factor Models, Machine Learning, and Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 337-368, November.
    5. Wu, Qinqin & Hao, Ying & Lu, Jing, 2018. "Air pollution, stock returns, and trading activities in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 342-365.
    6. Dong, Rui & Fisman, Raymond & Wang, Yongxiang & Xu, Nianhang, 2021. "Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 971-984.
    7. Liu, Jie & Zhang, Chuan & Chen, Hanwen, 2025. "Customer risk disclosure and supplier innovation strategy: A risk spillover perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Ramzi Benkraiem & Fatima Shuwaikh & Faten Lakhal & Assil Guizani, 2022. "Carbon performance and firm value of the World's most sustainable companies," Post-Print hal-03763998, HAL.
    9. Weiping Li & Wenwen Liu, 2021. "Investor sentiment‐styled index in index futures market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 51-72, January.
    10. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    11. Guo, Mengmeng & Kuai, Yicheng & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2020. "Stock market response to environmental policies: Evidence from heavily polluting firms in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 306-316.
    12. Feng, Jingyu & Yuan, Ying, 2024. "Green investors and corporate ESG performance: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Morakinyo O Adetutu & Kayode A Odusanya & Eleni Stathopoulou & Thomas G Weyman-Jones, 2023. "Environmental regulation, taxes, and activism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 460-489.
    14. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    16. Cao, Yufei, 2022. "Extreme risk spillovers across financial markets under different crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Q. Li & C.H. Peng, 2016. "The stock market effect of air pollution: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3442-3461, August.
    18. Li, Zhinan & Pei, Shan & Li, Ting & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Risk spillover network in the supply chain system during the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. He, Wenjing & Yao, Xiaoyang & Sun, Xiaolei & Le, Wei & Yi, Ronghua, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers of green, brown, and financial industries under the low-carbon transition: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Cevik, Nuket Kirci & Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel, 2020. "Oil prices, stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 597-614.
    21. Ender Demir & Oguz Ersan, 2016. "When Stock Market Investors Breathe Polluted Air," Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, in: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Hakan Danis (ed.), Entrepreneurship, Business and Economics - Vol. 2, edition 1, pages 705-720, Springer.
    22. Berger, Dave & Turtle, H.J., 2012. "Cross-sectional performance and investor sentiment in a multiple risk factor model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1107-1121.
    23. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2016. "Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 25-42.
    24. Li, Jennifer (Jie) & Massa, Massimo & Zhang, Hong & Zhang, Jian, 2021. "Air pollution, behavioral bias, and the disposition effect in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 641-673.
    25. Chi, Yeguang & He, Jingbin & Ma, Xinru & Wu, Fei, 2023. "Air pollution and institutional investors' valuation bias during initial public offerings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    26. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    27. He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Is volatility spillover enough for investor decisions? A new viewpoint from higher moments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    28. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    29. Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2020. "Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID-19—a Preliminary Exposition," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2138-2150, August.
    30. Cao, Qiang & Zhu, Tingting & Yu, Wenmei, 2024. "ESG investment and bank efficiency: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    31. Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    32. Hyein Shim & Hyeyoen Kim & Junyeup Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2015. "Weather and stock market volatility: the case of a leading emerging market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 987-992, August.
    33. Benjamin J Gillen & Sergio Montero & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Matthew Shum, 2019. "BLP-2LASSO for aggregate discrete choice models with rich covariates," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(3), pages 262-281.
    34. George Loewenstein, 2000. "Emotions in Economic Theory and Economic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 426-432, May.
    35. Siqi Zheng & Matthew E. Kahn, 2017. "A New Era of Pollution Progress in Urban China?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 71-92, Winter.
    36. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    37. Grace Xing Hu & Jiang Wang, 2022. "A Review of China's Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 465-507, November.
    38. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    39. Yu, Yunjiang & Dai, Chun & Wei, Yigang & Ren, Huiming & Zhou, Jiawen, 2022. "Air pollution prevention and control action plan substantially reduced PM2.5 concentration in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    40. Gnagne, Pascal Xavier & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla, 2024. "The spillover and contagion effects of sovereign risk on stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    41. Francisco J André & Michael Finus, 2024. "Endogenous learning in international environmental agreements: the impact of research spillovers and the degree of cooperation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 877-900.
    42. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2011. "Air pollution and stock returns in the US," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 374-383, June.
    43. Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2020. "Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID-19—a Preliminary Exposition," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2138-2150, August.
    44. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    45. Audrino, Francesco & Tetereva, Anastasija, 2019. "Sentiment spillover effects for US and European companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 542-567.
    46. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Shuwaikh, Fatima & Lakhal, Faten & Guizani, Assil, 2022. "Carbon performance and firm value of the World's most sustainable companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    47. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    48. Islam, Towhidul & Meade, Nigel & Carson, Richard T. & Louviere, Jordan J. & Wang, Juan, 2022. "The usefulness of socio-demographic variables in predicting purchase decisions: Evidence from machine learning procedures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 324-338.
    49. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    50. Ding, Xiaoya & Guo, Mengmeng & Yang, Tao, 2021. "Air pollution, local bias, and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    51. Pan, Junyu & Du, Lizhao & Wu, Haitao & Liu, Xiaoqian, 2024. "Does environmental law enforcement supervision improve corporate carbon reduction performance? Evidence from environmental protection interview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    52. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Su, Yuandong & Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Good air quality and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Xu, Alan, 2022. "Air pollution and mediation effects in stock market, longitudinal evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Li, Rong & Liu, Luxi & Qiu, Yun & Tian, Xiaohui, 2024. "Air pollution and stock returns: The cash flow risk channel," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Wei Zhang & Xinyu Li & Guanying Wang & Xiangqian Li, 2026. "Environmental pollution and IPO pricing efficiency: evidence from heavily polluting firms in China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 757-798, February.
    5. Wu, Qinqin & Chou, Robin K. & Lu, Jing, 2020. "How does air pollution-induced fund-manager mood affect stock markets in China?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Guo, Mengmeng & Wei, Mengxin & Huang, Lin, 2022. "Does air pollution influence investor trading behavior? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Liu, Huajin & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Xiaotao & Liu, Jia, 2021. "Temperature and trading behaviours," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Dehong Liu & Tiantian Lin & Carl R. Chen & Wenjun Feng, 2025. "Air pollution, analyst information provision, and stock price synchronicity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1029-1077, April.
    9. Chi, Yeguang & He, Jingbin & Ma, Xinru & Wu, Fei, 2023. "Air pollution and institutional investors' valuation bias during initial public offerings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Zhuhua Jiang & Rangan Gupta & Sowmya Subramaniam & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "The Effect of Air Quality and Weather on the Chinese Stock: Evidence from Shenzhen Stock Exchange," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Aiqun Wang & Ming Zhang & Shuya Zhou, 2022. "Air Pollution, Environmental Violation Risk, and the Cost of Debt: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Hasan, Md. Tanvir, 2022. "The sum of all SCARES COVID-19 sentiment and asset return," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 332-346.
    13. Jiawen Luo & Qun Zhang, 2024. "Air pollution, weather factors, and realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 151-217, February.
    14. Ting Yao & Yue‐Jun Zhang, 2024. "The impact of air pollution on crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1055-1068, June.
    15. Han, Byunghun & Park, Junho & Park, Kwangwoo, 2024. "Air quality, ES risks, and stock returns: Evidence from Korea," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    16. Luo, Yue & Chen, Yangyang & Lin, Ji-Chai, 2022. "Does air quality affect inventor productivity? Evidence from the NOx budget program," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Kirk-Reeve, Samuel & Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "National air pollution and the cross-section of stock returns in China," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    18. Wu, Qinqin & Hao, Ying & Lu, Jing, 2018. "Air pollution, stock returns, and trading activities in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 342-365.
    19. Rui Zhao & Dawei Liang & Yukun Pan & Qianqian Du, 2022. "Air Pollution and Employee Protection: The Moderating Effect of Public Attention and Environmental Regulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-18, September.
    20. Wu, Qinin & Lu, Jing, 2020. "Air pollution, individual investors, and stock pricing in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 267-287.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325002603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.