The impact of energy transition policies on regional economic resilience

Accelerating the enhancement of regional economic resilience serves as a crucial pathway for China's economy to withstand external risks and achieve stable, high-quality development. Drawing on panel data from China's 31 provinces spanning 2015–2024, this study leverages the quasi-natural experiment created by the gradient implementation of energy transition policies. A multi-period difference-in-differences model is constructed to empirically examine the impact mechanism of energy transition policies on regional economic resilience. Findings reveal that stronger implementation of energy transition policies significantly enhances regional economies' resilience to external shocks and their capacity for recovery and growth. This effect operates through promoting industrial structure optimization and upgrading, stimulating technological innovation, improving green infrastructure, and cultivating new growth drivers. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promotional effect of energy transition policies is more pronounced in regions with advanced industrial structures and mature digital economies. It also strengthens economic resilience in areas with higher human capital levels, while its impact is significantly weakened in regions heavily reliant on energy endowments. From a macro-spatial perspective, the spillover effects exhibit a distinct geographic gradient, with the strongest effects in the east, followed by the central region, and the weakest in the west. The findings enrich empirical evidence on the economic impacts of energy transition policies and offer valuable insights for refining supporting policies, strengthening regional economic resilience, and advancing high-quality economic development.