Assessing the nonlinear impact of data element marketization on industrial chain resilience

Against the backdrop of frequent external shocks and the accelerated restructuring of global industrial chains, enhancing industrial chain resilience (ICR) has become an important issue for safeguarding industrial security and promoting high-quality development. As an important institutional arrangement in the digital economy era, whether data element marketization (DEM) can enhance ICR merits systematic examination. Based on panel data for 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2007 to 2023, this paper employs the double machine learning (DML) method to examine the impact of DEM on ICR. The underlying mechanisms are further investigated from three dimensions, namely innovation capability, resource allocation efficiency, and industrial structure upgrading, while the threshold effect of new digital infrastructure (NDI) is also identified. The results indicate that, first, DEM significantly enhances ICR. Second, DEM strengthens ICR mainly by improving innovation capability, enhancing resource allocation efficiency, and promoting industrial structure upgrading. Third, the impact of DEM on ICR exhibits a significant threshold effect, and its promoting effect is markedly strengthened once NDI exceeds a certain critical level. These conclusions remain robust after a series of robustness tests, including adjustments to the sample range, the instrumental variable approach, winsorization, the exclusion of interference from other related policies, and the replacement of machine learning algorithms. From the perspective of data factor market development, this paper provides new empirical evidence for improving ICR and also offers policy implications for advancing DEM reform and optimizing the layout of digital infrastructure.