The “carbon unlocking” effect of energy marketization reform: A tri-dimensional perspective of allocation, structure, and efficiency

The carbon lock-in (CLI) dilemma, driven by excessive and inefficient energy use, poses a critical barrier to urban green transitions. Energy marketization reform, as the core measure for optimizing the energy system, provides a practical and feasible route for cities to advance carbon unlocking. Centering on the energy-consuming right trading policy (ECRTP), a key practice in China’s energy marketization reform, this study applies a double machine learning model to examine its impact on CLI, and analyze its mediating, moderating, and synergistic effects. The results show that: (1) The ECRTP exerts a significant suppressive effect on urban CLI, and it holds steady under multiple robustness validations. (2) The ECRTP promotes urban carbon unlocking by curbing energy over-allocation, advancing dual energy-structure upgrading, and improving energy efficiency. However, the channels related to alleviating energy under-allocation and restraining total energy consumption have not yet taken effect. (3) Market integration, institutional green bias, and public behavior drive have significantly moderated the effect of ECRTP. (4) The ECRTP has significant regional synergy, policy synergy, and pollution-carbon reduction synergy effects. This research offers strong empirical support for promoting energy marketization reform, continuously facilitating urban carbon unlocking, and improving the global climate governance system.