How does agricultural modernization promote common prosperity? Evidence from non-agricultural transformation and digital infrastructure

This paper examines the impact of agricultural modernization on common prosperity in China and uncovers the mechanisms through which modernization promotes inclusive and equitable development. Using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2023, the study constructs a comprehensive agricultural modernization index and a multidimensional common prosperity index to analyze both direct and indirect effects. The results demonstrate that agricultural modernization significantly advances common prosperity by improving agricultural productivity, increasing farmers’ income, and enhancing rural living standards. Further analysis identifies non-agricultural income and non-agricultural employment as critical mediating channels through which modernization facilitates income diversification and labor mobility, thereby narrowing urban–rural income gaps. In addition, digital infrastructure plays a significant moderating role, amplifying the positive effects of agricultural modernization by improving production efficiency, expanding non-agricultural job opportunities, and strengthening the inclusiveness of economic growth. Robustness tests using propensity score matching, the Heckman two-stage model, and lagged variable estimation confirm the stability of the results. Overall, the findings highlight that agricultural modernization not only contributes to economic growth but also enhances income redistribution and social welfare, laying a solid foundation for achieving common prosperity. Policy efforts should therefore focus on promoting coordinated development between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, expanding digital infrastructure in rural areas, and improving the inclusiveness and sustainability of agricultural modernization.