Women’s bargaining power and household expenditure: Nonlinear effects from Chinese microdata

This study examines how women’s bargaining power within Chinese households affects household expenditure patterns. Using microdata from 44,147 households that include a legally married couple from the 2017 and 2019 waves of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), we apply a collective household model combined with Generalized Propensity Score Matching (GPSM) to estimate causal effects. The analysis reveals a significant nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship: household expenditure increases as women’s bargaining power rises, peaking when the wife contributes approximately 50 % of the total spousal income (i.e., a bargaining power value of ∼0.5), and then declines beyond that point. We further identify substantial heterogeneity across subgroups, with the strongest effects observed among urban, middle-income, and younger households, as well as those living with the wife’s parents. Notably, greater female bargaining power increases wives’ personal expenditures while reducing husbands’ spending. By integrating Chinese institutional and cultural characteristics into an intra-household bargaining framework, this study enriches the understanding of household economic behavior and offers practical policy insights for promoting household welfare and advancing gender-equitable reforms.