IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v88y2025icp1482-1501.html

Revealing nexus between crime and inequality: Application of artificial neural network with bootstrapping approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Tingting
  • Cheong, Tsun Se
  • Shum, Wai Yan
  • Wan, Guanghua
  • Wu, Haitao
  • Ma, Ning

Abstract

The social structure theory posits that crime is a consequence of inequality. However, an expanding body of research indicates that crime can also emerge from affluence and equality. This study used an artificial neural network approach (ANN) and a bootstrapping approach (RAB) to study the relationship between crime and inequality, incorporating various influencing factors into the model. Results reveal an asymmetric inverted U-shaped pattern, with crime at its minimum when the Gini coefficient is 0.35. This observation implies that crime is promoted at elevated levels of inequality or excessive equality. Furthermore, the study acknowledges the influence of diverse factors, including human capital, population density, inflation, unemployment, urbanization, and civil liberties, on the dynamics of the relationship between inequality and crime rates. These findings provide pragmatic policy implications for countries at different stages of economic development, aiming to achieve economic growth with social equity and crime reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Tingting & Cheong, Tsun Se & Shum, Wai Yan & Wan, Guanghua & Wu, Haitao & Ma, Ning, 2025. "Revealing nexus between crime and inequality: Application of artificial neural network with bootstrapping approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1482-1501.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:88:y:2025:i:c:p:1482-1501
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592625004461
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roy M. Howsen & Stephen B. Jarrell, 1987. "Some Determinants of Property Crime: Economic Factors Influence Criminal Behavior But Cannot Completely Explain the Syndrome," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 445-457, October.
    2. Buonanno, Paolo & Vargas, Juan F., 2019. "Inequality, crime, and the long run legacy of slavery," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 539-552.
    3. Mauro Costantini & Iris Meco & Antonio Paradiso, 2018. "Do inequality, unemployment and deterrence affect crime over the long run?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 558-571, April.
    4. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Jan van Dijk & Paul Nieuwbeerta & Jacqueline Joudo Larsen, 2022. "Correction to: Global Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Survey Data from 166 Countries Around the World, 2006–2019," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 829-829, December.
    6. Jan van Dijk & Paul Nieuwbeerta & Jacqueline Joudo Larsen, 2022. "Global Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Survey Data from 166 Countries Around the World, 2006–2019," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 793-827, December.
    7. Freedman, Matthew & Owens, Emily G., 2011. "Low-income housing development and crime," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 115-131.
    8. Enamorado, Ted & López-Calva, Luis F. & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2016. "Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 128-143.
    9. Kazeem B. Ajide & Olorunfemi Y. Alimi, 2021. "Income inequality, human capital and terrorism in Africa: Beyond exploratory analytics," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 218-240.
    10. Pickett, K.E. & Mookherjee, J. & Wilkinson, R.G., 2005. "Adolescent birth rates, total homicides, and income inequality in rich countries," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(7), pages 1181-1183.
    11. Morgan Kelly, 2000. "Inequality And Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 530-539, November.
    12. Chamberlain, Alyssa W. & Hipp, John R., 2015. "It's all relative: Concentrated disadvantage within and across neighborhoods and communities, and the consequences for neighborhood crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 431-443.
    13. Nadanovsky, Paulo & Cunha-Cruz, Joana, 2009. "The relative contribution of income inequality and imprisonment to the variation in homicide rates among Developed (OECD), South and Central American countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(9), pages 1343-1350, November.
    14. Tsun Se Cheong & Guanghua Wan & David Kam Hung Chui, 2022. "Unveiling the Relationship between Economic Growth and Equality for Developing Countries," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 1-28, September.
    15. Chiu, W. Henry & Madden, Paul, 1998. "Burglary and income inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 123-141, July.
    16. Goh, Lim Thye & Law, Siong Hook, 2023. "The crime rate of five Latin American countries: Does income inequality matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 745-763.
    17. Matz Dahlberg & Magnus Gustavsson, 2008. "Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 129-153, April.
    18. de Vries, Robert & Gosling, Samuel & Potter, Jeff, 2011. "Income inequality and personality: Are less equal U.S. states less agreeable?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(12), pages 1978-1985, June.
    19. Irving Piliavin & Rosemary Gartner & Craig Thornton & Ross L. Matsueda, 1986. "Crime, Deterrence, and Rational Choice," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 108e576df4ff4e768e3b2bc8b, Mathematica Policy Research.
    20. Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2019. "Income inequality, redistribution and domestic terrorism," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 116, pages 125-136.
    21. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & Daniel Lederman, 2000. "Crime and Victimization: An Economic Perspective," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2000), pages 219-302.
    22. Lilik Sugiharti & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Lussi Agustin & Hilda Rohmawati, 2022. "Criminality and Income Inequality in Indonesia," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, March.
    23. Steven F. Messner & Lawrence E. Raffalovich & Peter Shrock, 2002. "Reassessing the Cross-National Relationship Between Income Inequality and Homicide Rates: Implications of Data Quality Control in the Measurement of Income Distribution," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 377-395, December.
    24. Tsun Se Cheong & Yanrui Wu, 2015. "Crime rates and inequality: a study of crime in contemporary China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 202-223, April.
    25. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Good Policy Can Lower Violent Crime: Evidence from a Cross-National Panel of Homicide Rates, 1980–97," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 40(6), pages 619-640, November.
    26. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2006. "Non-linear models: applications in economics," MPRA Paper 3100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "What causes violent crime?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1323-1357, July.
    28. Lindokuhle Talent Zungu & Thamsanqa Reginald Mtshengu, 2023. "The Twin Impacts of Income Inequality and Unemployment on Murder Crime in African Emerging Economies: A Mixed Models Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, February.
    29. Manea, Roxana Elena & Piraino, Patrizio & Viarengo, Martina, 2023. "Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: Evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    30. Soares, Rodrigo R., 2004. "Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 155-184, February.
    31. Bebonchu Atems, 2020. "Identifying the Dynamic Effects of Income Inequality on Crime," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 751-782, August.
    32. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2007. "The Economic Lives of the Poor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 141-168, Winter.
    33. James, Alexander & Smith, Brock, 2017. "There will be blood: Crime rates in shale-rich U.S. counties," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 125-152.
    34. Itskovich, Eran & Factor, Roni, 2023. "Economic inequality and crime: The role of social resistance," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    35. Eric Neumayer, 2005. "Inequality and Violent Crime: Evidence from Data on Robbery and Violent Theft," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 42(1), pages 101-112, January.
    36. Demombynes, Gabriel & Ozler, Berk, 2005. "Crime and local inequality in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 265-292, April.
    37. Cornwell, Christopher & Trumbull, William N, 1994. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 360-366, May.
    38. Mark A. Cohen, 2008. "The Effect of Crime on Life Satisfaction," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 325-353, June.
    39. Forrester, Jay W., 1987. "Nonlinearity in high-order models of social systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 104-109, June.
    40. Hipp, John R. & Kane, Kevin, 2017. "Cities and the larger context: What explains changing levels of crime?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 32-44.
    41. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "Inequality and Violent Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-40, April.
    42. Block, M K & Heineke, J M, 1975. "A Labor Theoretic Analysis of the Criminal Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 314-325, June.
    43. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Zahid Yousaf & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Saad M. Alotaibi & Ahmad Kabbani & Khalid Zaman, 2020. "Dynamic linkages between poverty, inequality, crime, and social expenditures in a panel of 16 countries: two-step GMM estimates," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    44. Sorin M. S. Krammer & Addisu A. Lashitew & Jonathan P. Doh & Hari Bapuji, 2023. "Correction: Income inequality, social cohesion, and crime against businesses: Evidence from a global sample of firms," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(2), pages 401-401, March.
    45. Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman & Menendez, Ana Maria, 2002. "Violent Crime: Does Social Capital Matter?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(3), pages 509-539, April.
    46. Lilik Sugiharti & Rudi Purwono & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Hilda Rohmawati, 2023. "The Nexus between Crime Rates, Poverty, and Income Inequality: A Case Study of Indonesia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    47. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    48. Lin, Ming-Jen, 2007. "Does democracy increase crime? The evidence from international data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 467-483, September.
    49. Chien-Chieh Huang & Derek Laing & Ping Wang, 2004. "Crime And Poverty: A Search-Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 909-938, August.
    50. Pinar Derin-G�re & Adem Yavuz Elveren, 2014. "Does Income Inequality Derive the Separatist Terrorism in Turkey?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 311-327, June.
    51. Du, Hongfei & King, Ronnel B. & Chi, Peilian, 2019. "Income inequality is detrimental to long-term well-being: A large-scale longitudinal investigation in China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 120-128.
    52. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Antonio Merlo & Peter Rupert, 2004. "What Accounts For The Decline In Crime?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 707-729, August.
    53. Stolzenberg, Lisa & Eitle, David & D'Alessio, Stewart J., 2006. "Race, economic inequality, and violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 303-316.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pazzona, Matteo, 2024. "Revisiting the Income Inequality-Crime Puzzle," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Nicolas Büttner, 2025. "Local inequality and crime: New evidence from South Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 23(4), pages 1337-1385, December.
    3. Yamamura, Eiji, 2009. "Formal and informal deterrents of crime in Japan: Roles of police and social capital revisited," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 611-621, August.
    4. repec:plo:pone00:0233034 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Soeren C. Schwuchow, 2023. "Organized crime as a link between inequality and corruption," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 469-509, June.
    6. Altindag, Duha T., 2012. "Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-157.
    7. Li, Jing & Wan, Guanghua & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Xueliang, 2019. "Which indicator of income distribution explains crime better? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 51-72.
    8. Islam,Asif Mohammed, 2016. "An exploration of the relationship between police presence, crime, and business in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7560, The World Bank.
    9. Goh, Lim Thye & Law, Siong Hook, 2023. "The crime rate of five Latin American countries: Does income inequality matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 745-763.
    10. Renan Cai & Su-Yin Tan, 2025. "Exploring the relationship between income inequality and crime in Toronto using frequentist and Bayesian models: Examining different crime types and spatial scales," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 52(8), pages 1814-1831, October.
    11. Kabeya Clement Mulamba, 2021. "A Spatial Analysis of Property Crime Rates in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(3), pages 329-347, September.
    12. Manea, Roxana Elena & Piraino, Patrizio & Viarengo, Martina, 2023. "Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: Evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    14. Asif Islam, 2014. "Economic growth and crime against small and medium sized enterprises in developing economies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 677-695, October.
    15. Enamorado, Ted & López-Calva, Luis F. & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2016. "Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 128-143.
    16. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "Identifying the Effect of Education on Crime. Evidence from the Italian Regions," Working Papers 65, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    17. Barslund, Mikkel & Rand, John & Tarp, Finn & Chiconela, Jacinto, 2007. "Understanding Victimization: The Case of Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1237-1258, July.
    18. Marcel Fafchamps & Bart Minten, 2004. "Insecurity and welfare," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-31, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    19. Demombynes, Gabriel & Ozler, Berk, 2005. "Crime and local inequality in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 265-292, April.
    20. Marcel Fafchamps & Christine Moser, 2003. "Crime, Isolation and Law Enforcement," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(4), pages 625-671, December.
    21. Bebonchu Atems, 2020. "Identifying the Dynamic Effects of Income Inequality on Crime," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 751-782, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:88:y:2025:i:c:p:1482-1501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.