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Effect of the Housing Provident Fund on urban housing prices in China: A dual perspective of spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear linkages

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  • Chen, Hongyan
  • Liu, Qingfang
  • Zheng, Longfei
  • Zhang, Xuebo

Abstract

The Housing Provident Fund (HPF) is an important part of China’s urban housing reform and its housing security system. Based on data for 287 Chinese cities spanning 2015–2022, this study uses the instrumental variable method and threshold regression to examine HPF’s effect on property prices as well as its spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear linkages. The results indicate that HPF has significantly increased urban housing prices, thereby widening the gap in housing benefits between scheme participants and nonparticipants. In addition, HPF’s effect on property prices is stronger in high-ranking cities than in ordinary ones; it is also stronger in large cities than in small and medium-sized ones. Finally, HPF’s effect on urban housing prices demonstrates nonlinearity, exhibiting a threshold effect. This study enriches the exploration of HPF’s effects on China’s housing market and offers practical evidence for reforming and improving HPF’s role in ensuring housing security.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hongyan & Liu, Qingfang & Zheng, Longfei & Zhang, Xuebo, 2025. "Effect of the Housing Provident Fund on urban housing prices in China: A dual perspective of spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear linkages," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 517-532.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:87:y:2025:i:c:p:517-532
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.06.028
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