IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v32y2002i2p203-219.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Yield Spread and Real Economic Activity: The Impact of Globalisation

Author

Listed:
  • Hawtrey, K.M.

    (Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, Sydney)

Abstract

One of the enduring linkages between financial markets and the real economy is that the shape of the interest rate curve is seen as a good predictor of future output growth. However, little is known about the effect of globalisation on this relationship. This paper examines whether, in the wake of the internationalisation of the Australian economy during the past decade and a half, there is today an identifiable relationship between the foreign yield spread and Australian GDP growth. Using the US interest rate spread as a proxy for the world yield curve, a link is found to exist with Australian GDP growth. There is evidence the link has strengthened as the economy has seen greater exposure to globalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hawtrey, K.M., 2002. "The Yield Spread and Real Economic Activity: The Impact of Globalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 203-219, June Spec.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:32:y:2002:i:2:p:203-219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592602500291
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:32:y:2002:i:2:p:203-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.