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Trafficking as choice? Evidence from Nigeria

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  • Bogatzki, Tamara
  • Meierrieks, Daniel

Abstract

The discourse on human trafficking often depicts migrants as deceived victims, while alternative accounts view trafficking as a constrained migration strategy. We contribute to this debate using original survey data from two cross-sectional waves (2021 and 2023) covering more than 2700 respondents in Edo State, Nigeria. A substantial share of respondents reports a willingness to migrate via traffickers despite awareness of the risks of forced labor. A list experiment provides suggestive evidence of underreporting of trafficking approval, particularly among women, likely reflecting stigma surrounding sex work. We examine the determinants of trafficking approval through an aspirations–capabilities framework. Willingness to migrate via traffickers is highest among individuals with strong migration aspirations but limited capabilities. In contrast, exposure to anti-trafficking campaigns has little effect. Respondents are generally well-informed about the potential risks and returns associated with trafficking and do not exhibit cognitive biases such as motivated reasoning. Overall, our findings suggest that trafficking is not primarily driven by ignorance, but instead reflects a constrained choice shaped by limited legal migration options and structural barriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogatzki, Tamara & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2026. "Trafficking as choice? Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:182:y:2026:i:c:s0304387826000921
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103809
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J47 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Coercive Labor Markets
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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