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Weapon supply shocks, violence, and migration

Author

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  • Acuna, Julio

Abstract

I use shocks to the world supply of weapons to identify the causal effect of violence as a driver of the U.S. migrant border crisis. The main finding is that weapon supply shocks increase violence, and violence increases migration. Migration is not monotonic after violence shocks, implying changes in migration timing that have neutral impacts over sixteen quarters. Critically, children and unaccompanied children react the least rapidly to violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Acuna, Julio, 2026. "Weapon supply shocks, violence, and migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:181:y:2026:i:c:s0304387826000118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103728
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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