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Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending

Author

Listed:
  • Manning, Matthew
  • Wong, Gabriel T.W.
  • Homel, Ross
  • Allen, Jacqueline
  • Frieberg, Kate

Abstract

This paper estimates the return on investment (ROI) of the Pathways to Prevention Project’s Communication Program. The program was an enriched preschool curriculum delivered over two years as part of a broader developmental crime prevention initiative with four-year-old children, their families, and local preschools in an economically disadvantaged urban Queensland community. Results show that for every dollar spent, the Communication Program generated an average return of 7.65 in savings (2024 Australian dollars) from avoided court-adjudicated youth offending. The Pathways to Prevention Project is the first Australian early-in-life crime prevention initiative to present scientifically persuasive evidence for effectiveness in reducing the probability of onset of serious youth offending, offering a counternarrative to prevailing expensive youth justice policies centered on child accountability and harsh punishments.

Suggested Citation

  • Manning, Matthew & Wong, Gabriel T.W. & Homel, Ross & Allen, Jacqueline & Frieberg, Kate, 2025. "Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:179:y:2025:i:c:s0190740925005158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heckman, James J. & Moon, Seong Hyeok & Pinto, Rodrigo & Savelyev, Peter A. & Yavitz, Adam, 2010. "The rate of return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 114-128, February.
    2. Manning, Matthew & Homel, Ross & Smith, Christine, 2006. "Economic Evaluation of a Community Based Early Intervention Program Implemented in a Disadvantaged Urban Area of Queensland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 99-119, March/Sep.
    3. Clive R. Belfield & Milagros Nores & Steve Barnett & Lawrence Schweinhart, 2021. "Corrigendum to “The High/Scope Perry Preschool Program: Cost–Benefit Analysis Using Data from the Age–40 Followup”," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(3), pages 969-969.
    4. Manning, Matthew & Homel, Ross & Smith, Christine, 2010. "A meta-analysis of the effects of early developmental prevention programs in at-risk populations on non-health outcomes in adolescence," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 506-519, April.
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