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Predicting children migrants’ social exclusion risk through an innovative digital tool: Application of machine learning methods to Spanish residential centres

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  • Fernández-Pacheco Alises, Gloria
  • Avignone, Tatiana
  • Torres Jiménez, Mercedes

Abstract

In the improvement of social care, the adaptation of services and procedures to the analysis of the best predictors of the risk of social exclusion for Unaccompanied Migrant Children plays an important role. This study aims to identify the best predictors of social exclusion among unaccompanied migrant children, to create a digital tool that integrates the complex reality of unaccompanied migrant children in shelters in Spain. Using a logistic regression model, an innovative risk assessment tool was created ad hoc for risk assessment within institutional care centres. A sample of 209 children who had been in residential care in Andalusia in 2021 was selected retrospectively. After applying a feature selection method, it was found that 24 variables are the most predictive within the educational, social, psychological or occupational areas; 8 belonged to risk factors and 16 to protective factors. Specifically, accessing intercultural mediation, having previous criminal records, bringing original documentation from their origin countries, using a sexualized vocabulary, having a good educational level and having economic resources for autonomy had a higher regression coefficient (Beta value), which means they are determinants in promoting better social inclusion. This pioneering study demonstrates that this digital tool offers a promising new method for the efficient screening of concerns for social professionals regarding social exclusion among unaccompanied migrant children in residential centres. One of the most suggestive findings of this study is the high incidence of protective factors in preventing the risk of social exclusion. Consequently, priority should be given to policies supporting protective factors related to social resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Pacheco Alises, Gloria & Avignone, Tatiana & Torres Jiménez, Mercedes, 2025. "Predicting children migrants’ social exclusion risk through an innovative digital tool: Application of machine learning methods to Spanish residential centres," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:175:y:2025:i:c:s0190740925002282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Digidiki, Vasileia & Bhabha, Jacqueline, 2018. "Sexual abuse and exploitation of unaccompanied migrant children in Greece: Identifying risk factors and gaps in services during the European migration crisis," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 114-121.
    2. Mitterbacher, Kerstin & Fleiß, Jürgen & Palan, Stefan, 2024. "Reciprocity in migration policy and labor market integration: A lab experiment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Jayshree Jani & Dawnya Underwood & Jessica Ranweiler, 2016. "Hope as a Crucial Factor in Integration Among Unaccompanied Immigrant Youth in the USA: A Pilot Project," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1195-1209, November.
    4. Gimeno-Monterde, Chabier & Gómez-Quintero, Juan David & C. Aguerri, Jesús, 2021. "Unaccompanied young people and transition to adulthood: Challenges for child care services," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Avignone, Tatiana & Fernández-Pacheco Alises, Gloria & Torres-Jiménez, Mercedes, 2024. "Is there a gender-based analysis of unaccompanied migrant minors? A systematic review of the evidence," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Brook, Martika Irene & Ottemöller, Fungisai Gwanzura, 2020. "A new life in Norway: The adaptation experiences of unaccompanied refugee minor girls," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Langan, Andrew & Gorzig, Marina Mileo, 2024. "Predictors of teen sexual behavior," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ren Wenxuan & Chen Diandian & Ding Yi & Miao Yuting & Wang Siya & Wang Rui, 2025. "An Empirical Study on Cultural and Educational Identity of Migrant Children in Zhoushan City from a Qualitative Perspective," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(7), pages 6008-6021, July.
    2. Chen Diandian & Ren Wenxuan & Ding Yi & Miao Yuting & RWang Siya & Wang Rui, 2025. "An Empirical Study on Cultural and Educational Identity of Migrant Children in Zhoushan City from a Qualitative Perspective," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(7), pages 6144-6159, July.

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