Can government policies tackle maturity mismatches? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Investment-financing maturity mismatches are common among firms worldwide, yet little is known about how government interventions can tackle them. This paper investigates China's Industry-Finance Cooperation Pilot Program as a quasi-natural experiment to examine whether, to what extent, and through what mechanisms government policies can address maturity mismatches. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model and a sample of publicly listed A-share firms in China from 2014 to 2022, we find that the pilot program significantly reduces maturity mismatches by improving bank-firm information flows, reducing banks' concerns over moral hazard, and narrowing the term spread between short- and long-term interest rates. These findings provide empirical evidence that government policies can simultaneously tackle both supply and demand causes of maturity mismatches. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the mismatch alleviation effect is strongest among non-state-owned enterprises, firms with low collateral availability, financially constrained firms, and those in highly competitive industries. Further, we find that alleviating maturity mismatches enhances firm stability, lowers financial distress, and improves market valuation, suggesting that these mismatches often reflect firms' “forced choices” rather than strategic preferences. Finally, analysis of bank-level data shows that the pilot program not only benefits firms but also reduces banks' credit and financial risks. Overall, this paper offers novel insights for policymakers by demonstrating how government interventions can improve corporate financing decisions while reducing systemic financial risks. It contributes to the broader corporate finance literature by highlighting the importance of credit availability in fostering financial stability and sustainable growth, particularly in emerging markets.