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Soft going-concern capital buffer? CoCo non-calls and revealed bank distress

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  • Deng, Kaihua
  • Fu, Qilong
  • Huang, Dongxia

Abstract

We document a significant widening of trading spreads for contingent convertible capital securities after banks announce non-redemption. The effect is more pronounced in less capitalized and less profitable banks, and spills over to CoCos issued by other banks in the same city, especially when the non-redemption announcements are short-noticed. Non-redemption has further led to higher issuance costs and a substantial drop in new CoCo issues. Troubled banks have shifted towards cutting payouts, paring down risky assets, booking less non-performing loans and decreasing loan loss provisions to repair their risk-based capital ratios, while equity-to-asset remains below the pre-event levels afterwards. Moreover, using loan-level data for listed firms, we find a persistent decline in bank lending to smaller and non-state borrowers following non-calls. These makeshift adjustments are further reflected in a lower Z-score. By contrast, senior debtholders and depositors retain the protection and are largely intact.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Kaihua & Fu, Qilong & Huang, Dongxia, 2025. "Soft going-concern capital buffer? CoCo non-calls and revealed bank distress," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:93:y:2025:i:c:s0929119925000707
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102802
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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