Migrant welfare policies and firm value: Evidence from a novel city-level index in China

Migrant welfare policies serve as crucial institutional levers for achieving sustainable urban development, yet the underlying mechanisms through which they influence firm value remain largely underexplored. This study proposes a new method for measuring the level of urban migrant welfare policies based on policy text scoring, and, using Chinese data, explores the impact of urban migrant welfare on corporate value and its underlying mechanisms. We find relatively robust evidence consistent with urban migrant welfare policies spilling over onto local corporate value. Mechanism tests suggest that these policies enhance corporate value by improving human capital allocation, promoting corporate social responsibility, and fostering innovation. The positive effect is more pronounced for firms in the growth stage and those operating in less competitive industries. Furthermore, we show that local fiscal capacity acts as a binding constraint: the value-enhancing effect of migrant welfare policies depends on sufficient fiscal resources for implementation. Our findings provide a new methodological perspective on quantifying policy text and elucidate the micro-foundations of how public policy shapes corporate performance.