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Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics

Author

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  • Chen, Jiaqi
  • Gu, Changgui
  • Ruan, Zhongyuan
  • Tang, Ming

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 has produced various variants during its ongoing evolution. The competitive behavior driven by the co-transmission of these variants has influenced the pandemic transmission dynamics. Therefore, studying the impact of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants on pandemic transmission dynamics is of considerable practical importance. In order to formalize the mechanism of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants, we propose an epidemic model that takes into account the co-transmission of competing variants. The model focuses on how cross-immunity influences the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through competitive mechanisms between strains. We found that inter-strain competition affects not only both the final size and the replacement time of the variants, but also the invasive behavior of new variants in the future. Due to the limited extent of cross-immunity in previous populations, we predict that the new strain may infect the largest number of individuals in China without control interventions. Moreover, we also observed the possibility of periodic outbreaks in the same lineage and the possibility of the resurgence of previous lineages. Without the invasion of a new variant, the previous variant (Delta variant) is projected to resurgence as early as 2023. However, its resurgence may be prevented by a new variant with a greater competitive advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jiaqi & Gu, Changgui & Ruan, Zhongyuan & Tang, Ming, 2023. "Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923000942
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hideo Tanaka & Tsuyoshi Ogata & Toshiyuki Shibata & Hitomi Nagai & Yuki Takahashi & Masaru Kinoshita & Keisuke Matsubayashi & Sanae Hattori & Chie Taniguchi, 2022. "Shorter Incubation Period among COVID-19 Cases with the BA.1 Omicron Variant," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-7, May.
    2. Qiao, Jian-Qin & Li, Li, 2017. "Analysis of competitive infectious diseases with multiple strains," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 215-221.
    3. de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric & Huang, Kuan-lin, 2022. "Modeling COVID-19 dynamic using a two-strain model with vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Rosanna C. Barnard & Nicholas G. Davies & Mark Jit & W. John Edmunds, 2022. "Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
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