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Do global bond market sentiments transmit to green bonds? Evidence from a quantile connectedness framework

Author

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  • Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur
  • Bidasaria, Hemant
  • Khan, Hera Asif
  • Ahmad, Wasim

Abstract

Bond market sentiment plays a crucial role in shaping global financial interconnectedness; however, little is known about how sentiment-driven transmission operates across different market conditions and its influence on green bond (GB) markets. Using sentiment indicators from six major economies and global GB returns from 2015 to 2023, we explore a quantile VAR connectedness framework to capture the spillover across normal, bearish, and bullish quantiles. We find asymmetric connectedness across quantiles, with GBs acting as net transmitters in normal and bearish markets and becoming net receivers in bullish phases. There is strong evidence of dominant spillover effects, with the USA and China acting as net transmitters of sentiment shocks, while Japan emerges as a net receiver. From hedging perspective, GBs help reduce the portfolio risk by 27.74 % compared to an unhedged portfolio. Overall, the findings are useful for fund managers looking to invest in global markets and utilise the opportunity of GBs in conjunction with conventional bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur & Bidasaria, Hemant & Khan, Hera Asif & Ahmad, Wasim, 2026. "Do global bond market sentiments transmit to green bonds? Evidence from a quantile connectedness framework," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:49:y:2026:i:c:s2214635026000134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101151
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    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

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