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Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model

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  • Ichinohe, Masayuki
  • Endo, Eiichi

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the passenger-car sector in Japan are increasing rapidly and should be reduced cost-effectively in order to stabilize energy-related CO2 emissions in Japan. The purpose of the present paper is to clarify the most cost-effective mix of vehicles for reducing CO2 emissions and to estimate the subsidy that is necessary to achieve this vehicle mix. For this analysis, the energy system of Japan from 1988 to 2032 is modeled using a MARKAL model. The most cost-effective mix of vehicles is estimated by minimizing the total energy system cost under the constraint of an 8% energy-related CO2 emissions reduction nationally by 2030 from the CO2 emissions of 1990. Based on the results of the analysis, hybrid vehicles are the only type of clean-energy vehicle, and their share of the passenger car sector in 2030 will be 62%. By assuming the subsidization of hybrid vehicles, the same vehicle mix can be achieved without constraining CO2 emissions. The peak of the total subsidy estimated to be necessary is 1.225 billion US$/year in 2020, but the annual revenue of the assumed 31 US$/t-C carbon tax from the passenger car sector is sufficient to finance the estimated subsidy. This suggests that we should support the dissemination of hybrid vehicles through subsidization based on carbon tax.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichinohe, Masayuki & Endo, Eiichi, 2006. "Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1047-1061, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:83:y:2006:i:10:p:1047-1061
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    9. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
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    12. David Huang, K. & Quang, Khong Vu & Tseng, Kuo-Tung, 2009. "Study of the effect of contraction of cross-sectional area on flow energy merger in hybrid pneumatic power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2171-2182, October.
    13. Anandarajah, Gabrial & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6724-6735, November.
    14. van Vliet, Oscar & van den Broek, Machteld & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Combining hybrid cars and synthetic fuels with electricity generation and carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 248-268, January.
    15. Yong Zeng & Yanpeng Cai & Guohe Huang & Jing Dai, 2011. "A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(10), pages 1-33, October.
    16. Timothy Welch & Sabyasachee Mishra, 2014. "Envisioning an emission diet: application of travel demand mechanisms to facilitate policy decision making," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 611-631, May.
    17. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Dulal, Hari B., 2008. "Fiscal policy instruments for reducing congestion and atmospheric emissions in the transport sector : a review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4652, The World Bank.
    18. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Martin, Niall P.D. & Boies, Adam M., 2014. "Cost-effectiveness of alternative powertrains for reduced energy use and CO2 emissions in passenger vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 44-61.
    19. Shmelev, Stanislav E. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2016. "Optimal diversity of renewable energy alternatives under multiple criteria: An application to the UK," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 679-691.
    20. Kikuchi, Yasunori & Kimura, Seiichiro & Okamoto, Yoshitaka & Koyama, Michihisa, 2014. "A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 586-601.
    21. Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Guerassimoff, Gilles & Maïzi, Nadia, 2013. "Heat recovery with heat pumps in non-energy intensive industry: A detailed bottom-up model analysis in the French food & drink industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 489-504.
    22. Anandarajah, Gabrial & McDowall, Will, 2012. "What are the costs of Scotland's climate and renewable policies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 773-783.

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