Aggregation of the UK's energy conservation options

Should the UK economy grow at an annual rate of to 3 per cent between now and the end of the century, total primary demand for energy might reach about 600 mtce if the nation paid no serious attention to energy conservation. However, the adoption of a rigorous, technology based conservation programme as described in this paper could mean that primary energy demand would be only between 400 and 450 mtce. The main options for saving energy by the application of technology are seen to be as follows, in ranking order: economies in general industrial operations insulation of buildings improvements in the mpg of motor vehicles economies in the production of chemicals economies in the production of steel products widespread introduction of heat pumps combined heat and power/district heating The magnitude of the potential savings corresponds to a savings on the national fuel bill, if prices doubled, of nearly £8000 millions a year by the end of the century. The integrated savings over the intervening years could reach £40,000 millions with present-day prices. The reduced rate of growth of energy demand due to pursuing a rigorous energy conservation programme could mean that annual primary demand in the year 2000 would be equal to what it would have been 12 years earlier in the absence of conservation. This [`]buying' of time could be valuable in terms of developing new energy supply technologies. If the package of conservation measures as described in this paper were actually carried out, a major shift of resources away from the energy supply industries into general manufacturing industry would necessarily occur. Although the pursuance of an all-out energy conservation programme based on appropriate technologies would appear highly desirable, it is unlikely to occur if left to market forces, for various reasons. Government would need to play a conspicuous role in both starting such a programme and in maintaining its momentum over many years.