Medium and long-term electricity demand forecasting for India – Incorporating EV charging and space cooling impacts

Accurate projections of India's electricity demand are crucial for assessing the capacity requirements of low-carbon sources required for decarbonizing the power sector. However, existing studies often rely on simplified estimations and typically overlook emerging demand drivers, such as additional cooling needs due to climate change and electric vehicle (EV) charging. This study addresses these gaps by developing a novel medium-term (1–2 years) and long-term (>5 years) forecasting framework for India that integrates projections of emerging demand trends. The medium-term model predicts demand increases of up to 15% in most states by 2025 compared to 2023. Although state budgets indicate an increase in gross domestic product (GDP), some states experience a decline in demand in 2025 relative to 2023 due to the influence of weather parameters, highlighting the need to incorporate weather parameters into demand assessments. The long-term model projects India's electricity demand to reach approximately 2350 TWh by 2030, 4450 TWh by 2050, and 6935 TWh by 2070, under the OECD scenario. The additional cooling demand resulting from climate change could exceed 25 TWh in Maharashtra and Karnataka by 2070, with the western and southern grids showing the highest regional impacts. EV charging loads could exceed 30 TWh in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh by 2070, with the northern grid expected to experience the highest regional demand for EV charging. These findings underscore the need to integrate emerging demand drivers into India's electricity demand assessments, providing accurate inputs essential for resource adequacy planning and the power sector decarbonization.